20 June (Part 1) - Probabilities and statistics. Is it all rubbish?
Except for the first few days after the recycling centres were opened
when there was sense in limiting pent up demand, I have
scratched my head at this daily message from Bexley Council.
I don’t think my A level maths course covered probabilities although a short
spell in the actuaries’ office at Prudential Assurance did.
I suppose designing a telephone exchange so that it could handle the number of
calls flung at it at random must have involved probabilities but I have long forgotten how the calculations went.
In the case of the recycling centres the number of people who would like to use
them is more or less static whether use of them is rationed or not and the number of
residents inclined to make the trip at any moment in time is likely to be random.
Bexley Council is effectively halving the size of its recycling centres and
halving the population who will randomly decide to pay a visit.
The overall effect is zero. True you cannot have everyone deciding to dump
rubbish on the same day (which could theoretically happen in normal times) but that is no more likely than everyone flushing the
loo at the same time and flooding the streets.
Seems Bonkers to me. Any statisticians out there?
On a related subject, being locked in and bored has resulted in me having eight
sacks of miscellaneous rags, sheets and old clothes being stored in my garden
shed. What can be done with them?